The First Verdict
Seven of ten preseason predictions were correct, but Week 1 already showed that IceCore Dynasty will not follow the script quietly.
ICECORE WEEKLY — WEEK 1
The First Verdict
The first week of IceCore Dynasty is in the books.
And if the opening round taught us anything, it is that preseason projections are useful — right up until the puck drops.
The original Week 1 projections correctly picked seven of the ten winners.
That is a respectable 70% start.
But the percentage is only the beginning of the story.
The real story is what happened between the projected lineups and the actual fantasy production.
Some teams followed the script.
Some rewrote it.
And a few franchises already gave us a reason to look at their rosters very differently.
🧊 Cleveland Forge 371 — 485 Quebec City Citadels
Quebec pulled away, while Cleveland’s young core got an early reality check.
The original projection gave Quebec a 455–413 advantage, and the Citadels eventually won by an even larger margin: 485–371.
Quebec actually had the best individual performance of the matchup.
Arturs Silovs led the Citadels with 47 fantasy points, while Pavel Dorofeyev and Erik Karlsson were Cleveland’s top scorers with 35 each. Igor Chernyshov contributed 29 and Erik Haula 26.
Cleveland had useful production, but Quebec had enough depth across the roster to pull away. Travis Sanheim added 33, Quinton Byfield 29, while Dylan Strome and Colton Parayko both reached 27.
And then there was the player everyone was watching.
Gavin McKenna.
Three fantasy points in three NHL games is obviously below the expectations surrounding one of the most exciting young players in hockey.
But Cleveland is a very young dynasty roster. One quiet opening week should not suddenly erase the long-term talent.
It does, however, illustrate the difference between having exciting prospects and having a mature fantasy machine.
Prediction: ✅ Quebec
Story of the matchup: Quebec had the highest individual scorer and the stronger overall distribution of production.
🥃 Key West Rumrunners 520 — 416 Roswell Greys
The first major upset — and not one that can simply be blamed on bad luck.
The original projection had Roswell ahead 460–384.
Instead, Key West won 520–416.
The Rumrunners were led by Mackenzie Blackwood with 47 fantasy points and Parker Kelly with 42. Cale Makar added 36, Josh Manson 35 and Zach Werenski 34.
Roswell was not completely out of the picture. Martin Necas produced 42, Owen Tippett 34, Brayden McNabb 33, while Thomas Chabot and Brandt Clarke both reached 32.
But that is exactly why this result is worth looking at carefully.
Roswell had useful individual production, yet the team still came up more than 100 points short.
The Week 1 snapshot also showed that the Greys’ lineup was not perfectly set, including an empty active slot. That makes it difficult to call the result pure bad luck.
Key West simply got more out of its lineup.
For Roswell, the next weeks will be important. The Greys have enough individual quality to recover, but the opening round showed that talent on the roster and a properly functioning fantasy lineup are not necessarily the same thing.
Prediction: ❌ Roswell
Story of the matchup: Key West announced itself, while Roswell left the first week with more questions than the preseason projection suggested.
🟢 Green Bay Alliance 466 — 505 Richmond Union
The first real warning that the projections could miss.
The original projection actually favoured Richmond, 410–367.
Richmond won 505–466.
The Union were led by an outstanding Andrei Svechnikov, who scored 55 fantasy points. Artturi Lehkonen followed with 52, Marco Rossi 51, Nick Suzuki 46 and Matthew Knies 42.
Green Bay had a strong defensive response. Shea Theodore led the Alliance with 43, while Luca Cagnoni added 35 and Nazem Kadri 29.
But Richmond simply had too many high-end performances arriving together.
This was one of the clearest examples of the difference between projection and actual weekly form.
The model liked Richmond.
The players delivered for Richmond.
Prediction: ✅ Richmond
Story of the matchup: Richmond confirmed the projection through sheer depth at the top of the lineup.
🔫 Hartford Arsenal 552 — 500 Halifax Privateers
Hartford looked deep, but Halifax had the biggest individual performance.
The original projection gave Hartford a 484–449 advantage.
The Arsenal won 552–500.
The Privateers actually produced the highest individual score of the matchup. Jeremy Swayman exploded for 68 fantasy points, while Nikita Zadorov added 42 and Will Smith 40.
Hartford answered with a balanced performance. Jack Eichel led the Arsenal with 51, Juuse Saros added 49, Bo Horvat 39 and William Nylander 37.
There was no need for one spectacular Hartford explosion.
The Arsenal simply had enough players producing across the roster to keep Halifax behind.
Hartford did not need one single superstar to carry the matchup. The production was spread across the roster, with Eichel and Saros leading the way.
Prediction: ✅ Hartford
Story of the matchup: Halifax had the individual monster performance. Hartford had the deeper week.
🦬 Omaha Bison 448 — 560 Memphis Riffs
McDavid and Bouchard turned this into a statement win.
The original projection had Memphis ahead 448–398.
The Riffs went even further, winning 560–448.
Connor McDavid produced a massive 94 fantasy points.
That alone would have been enough to make headlines, but Memphis also received Evan Bouchard’s 87 and Vasily Podkolzin’s 72.
Omaha had a respectable response from Dylan Guenther, who scored 61, while Yaroslav Askarov added 43 and Nick Schmaltz 38.
That is a good fantasy week from Omaha.
It simply was not enough against a Memphis roster firing on all cylinders.
When McDavid, Bouchard and Podkolzin combine for that level of production, the matchup becomes very difficult to control.
Prediction: ✅ Memphis
Story of the matchup: Memphis showed one of the highest ceilings in the league — and it did not need McDavid to do everything alone.
🐦 Cincinnati Rivermen 477 — 524 Saskatoon Prairie Drifters
Cincinnati made the projected gap look much smaller.
The original projection gave Saskatoon a huge 529–377 advantage.
The Drifters still won, but only 524–477.
Cincinnati had excellent individual performances from Sebastian Aho with 52 and Clayton Keller with 50. Vince Dunn added 36, while the goaltending duo of Jakub Dobes and Logan Thompson contributed 31 and 30.
Saskatoon had the matchup’s biggest individual fantasy performance from Ilya Sorokin, who exploded for 73 fantasy points. Filip Hronek followed with 69, while Kris Letang, Mika Zibanejad and Brock Nelson also delivered.
The result went exactly where the projection expected.
The margin did not.
Cincinnati showed enough production to suggest that the Rivermen may be much more competitive than a 122-point projected gap would have implied.
Prediction: ✅ Saskatoon
Story of the matchup: Saskatoon protected its status, but Cincinnati closed the paper gap considerably.
🎷 New Orleans Soul 438 — 454 Houston Signals
Houston survived a matchup that was much closer than expected.
The original projection had Houston winning 492–398.
The Signals eventually won by only 16 points: 454–438.
New Orleans got a superb performance from Jesper Wallstedt, who produced 49 fantasy points. Logan Cooley added 37, Jared McCann 32 and Gabe Perreault 29.
Houston’s best scorer was Mikhail Sergachev with 44, followed by Mark Kastelic at 43. Spencer Knight added 32 and Brandon Hagel 26.
For New Orleans, this is an encouraging result.
The Soul are building around a very young dynasty core. They were expected to lose comfortably, but instead stayed within striking distance until the end.
That is exactly the kind of opening week that can change the perception of a young franchise.
Prediction: ✅ Houston
Story of the matchup: Houston got the win. New Orleans got an early reason for optimism.
🌪️ Amarillo Downburst 582 — 475 Kelowna Vintners
Amarillo brought the established firepower. Celebrini brought the future.
The original projection gave Amarillo a 560–446 advantage.
The Downburst won 582–475.
Leon Draisaitl led Amarillo with 60 fantasy points, Nathan MacKinnon added 56 and Igor Shesterkin 40. Kirill Kaprizov and Jackson Blake each contributed 33.
Kelowna had an answer of its own.
Macklin Celebrini produced 64 fantasy points, while Morgan Rielly added 37 and Easton Cowan 33.
That is a fascinating dynasty contrast.
Amarillo has proven elite production at the top.
Kelowna has one of the league’s most exciting young cornerstones.
For Week 1, experience won.
For the future, the Vintners still have plenty to look forward to.
Prediction: ✅ Amarillo
Story of the matchup: Amarillo’s established stars controlled the week, but Celebrini made sure Kelowna’s future stayed in the conversation.
🌴 Honolulu Guardians 519 — 448 Victoria Cedars
Another upset — and one that directly challenged the preseason favourite.
The original projection had Victoria ahead 535–478.
Honolulu won 519–448.
The Guardians were led by a spectacular Elias Pettersson, who produced 70 fantasy points. Joel Hofer added 43, Travis Konecny 34 and Eeli Tolvanen 31.
Victoria’s top performers were John Tavares with 35, Kyle Connor with 32 and Charlie Coyle with 31.
The Cedars had production.
Honolulu simply had more of it.
This is exactly the sort of result that makes preseason rankings dangerous if they are treated as a final verdict.
Victoria entered the season as the paper favourite in this matchup.
After Week 1, Honolulu has the win and one of the biggest statements of the opening round.
Prediction: ❌ Victoria
Story of the matchup: Honolulu did not need a miracle. The Guardians simply produced better when it mattered.
🏝️ Charlotte Amalie Corsairs 399 — 448 Salem Ravens
Salem quietly flipped the script.
The original projection favoured Charlotte 432–415.
The Ravens won 448–399.
Charlotte was led by Brock Boeser with 38 fantasy points. Quinn Hughes and Kirill Marchenko each added 37, while Karel Vejmelka and Jacob Markstrom both contributed 33.
Salem answered with Evgeni Malkin at 41 and David Pastrnak at 36. Logan Stanley added 30 and Steven Stamkos 26.
It was not a spectacular blowout.
It was a steady Salem performance that kept Charlotte from turning its projected advantage into an actual victory.
The Corsairs had enough good individual numbers.
The Ravens simply had the better total.
Prediction: ❌ Charlotte
Story of the matchup: Salem took the first upset of the projection table without needing one enormous fantasy explosion.
⭐ PLAYERS OF THE WEEK
Performance of the Week — Connor McDavid
94 fantasy points.
A monster opening week from the Memphis superstar.
Goalie Performance — Ilya Sorokin
73 fantasy points for Saskatoon.
The Prairie Drifters got the biggest goaltending performance of the round, while Sorokin helped Saskatoon hold off a strong Cincinnati push.
Young Star of the Week — Macklin Celebrini
64 fantasy points.
Kelowna lost, but its cornerstone immediately looked like a player capable of changing a dynasty matchup.
Breakout Performance — Elias Pettersson
70 fantasy points helped Honolulu knock off the preseason favourite from Victoria.
Biggest Disappointment — Gavin McKenna
Three fantasy points in three games is not a disaster for a young player.
But McKenna entered the season with enormous expectations.
Week 1 was a reminder that dynasty value and immediate fantasy production are not always the same thing.
🧊 WHAT DID WE LEARN?
Projections are useful — but they are not sacred.
Seven of the ten projected winners actually won.
That is enough to show that the numbers have value.
It is also enough to show that they are not destiny.
Depth matters.
Richmond, Memphis, Amarillo, Key West and Honolulu all benefited from production arriving from several parts of the roster.
A superstar can change a matchup.
Depth can change a week.
Young teams need patience — but they can surprise immediately.
Cleveland is the clearest reminder that young talent may need time.
New Orleans is the counterexample.
The Soul were projected to lose by 94 points and lost by only 16.
That is a very different kind of opening week.
Lineup management matters too.
Roswell’s loss should not be explained away as bad luck.
The Week 1 snapshot showed an imperfectly set lineup as well as a lack of sufficient production across the active roster.
In a league with no traditional bench, getting the active lineup right is part of the competition.
🔥 THE ICECORE WEEK 1 VERDICT
After ten matchups, the first chapter of the season already looks different from the preseason table.
Quebec confirmed its strength.
Hartford looked deep and stable.
Memphis showed one of the league’s highest ceilings.
Amarillo demonstrated the value of elite proven stars.
Key West announced itself with the biggest upset of the round.
Richmond overturned the projection.
New Orleans showed that its young project can compete earlier than expected.
Honolulu delivered another major statement.
Salem quietly took down a projected favourite.
And Roswell?
The Greys have enough individual quality to recover quickly. But the opening week also suggested that the problem was not simply bad luck. The lineup itself was not perfectly set, and the team did not extract enough production from the roster that was available.
That makes the next few weeks especially interesting.
Because this is dynasty fantasy.
The season is not decided in Week 1.
But Week 1 can absolutely change the conversation.
The projections made their call.
The players have now made theirs.
And IceCore is officially underway.